Convergence Radar Convergence Engine
9Lessons held
0.843Avg confidence
2432Open predictions
Mean Brier
3Scanning now
1999Total scans

🧬 Evolution feed — how the system is learning

Knowledge → Hypothesis → Experiment → Observation → Reusable learning. Lessons (decaying), state changes, prediction checks, and alerts, newest first.

new demand evidence: [Notice] Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations
🧠 A FORCED BUYER government mandate is the strongest demand signal available: the buyer has no choice and a deadline. 07-10 03:08
heuristic · conf 0.7955
🧠 Founder now has capital and runway — judge ideas on sellability (reachable paying buyer, differentiation), not 30-day cash; do not penalise modest upfront spend or a 3-6 month ramp. 07-10 03:08
preference · conf 0.8983
🧠 Connected-components clustering on semantic edges chains transitively into hairballs; mutual-kNN plus hairball-splitting yields tight, useful clusters. 07-10 03:08
fact · conf 0.8404
🧠 Federal Register agency feeds must be filtered to type=RULE/PRORULE; Notices (exemption applications, airworthiness directives) are not filing mandates and waste reasoning budget. 07-10 03:08
heuristic · conf 0.7955
🧠 Google Patents XHR is bot-blocked (503) from this server; the official USPTO ODP API (api.uspto.gov, keyed) works. 07-10 03:08
fact · conf 0.8899
🧠 Reddit blocks datacenter IPs on both .json (403) and .rss (intermittent); reliable Reddit ingestion needs OAuth. 07-10 03:08
fact · conf 0.8404
🧠 Lexical (ts_rank) demand retrieval fabricates evidence (matched 45Z clean-fuel credit to a SaaS support job ad); semantic embedding retrieval at cosine>=0.72 discriminates correctly. 07-10 03:08
fact · conf 0.8899
🧠 The engine is capability-rich but demand-blind: capability sources dominate ingestion, so demand_evidence/existing_spend/speed_to_revenue are systematically under-scored. Demand sources are the scoring bottleneck. 07-10 03:08
inference · conf 0.8373
🧠 Government-portal mandate opportunities (regulation compels a class of filers to submit to a portal) fit this founder best — highest founder-fit scores (8-9) and structural forced-buyer demand. 07-10 03:08
heuristic · conf 0.7955